Under 10.5
Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Edge
Friendly alt under at 72.2% implied (target 70%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: neutral vegas band, both rungs tied at 72.2% — Under wins on vig-asymmetry research.
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-total surface, under-side at friendly rung
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Audit trail
Pick ID#761
UUID5f6d5242-4561-4436-8752-159b22f43bd9
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-05-15 21:26 UTC
Gradedpending
Lineup confirmmlb:823384:2026-05-15T22:40:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash375948be1f2e215cff489e83da6bdaf32f8262f39180f44503a502fc90d1c631
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