Friendly alt under at 72.2% implied (target 70%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: neutral vegas band, both rungs tied at 72.2% — Under wins on vig-asymmetry research.

Signal

Same lineup gate as ML

Context

MLB alt-total surface, under-side at friendly rung

Risk

Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.

⊞Final · Grading detail

Philadelphia Phillies11

Pittsburgh Pirates9

Winner: Philadelphia Phillies · 2026-05-15

◢Related Picks (20)

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Pick ID#761

UUID5f6d5242-4561-4436-8752-159b22f43bd9

Surfacesharp:MLB

Posted2026-05-15 21:26 UTC

Graded2026-05-16 02:19 UTC

Lineup confirmmlb:823384:2026-05-15T22:40:00Z

ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger

Opening hash375948be1f2e215cff489e83da6bdaf32f8262f39180f44503a502fc90d1c631

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Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
Graded against close63.4% closed
1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
Every pick public12 pending
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Same team (7d)

Same model

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