Atlanta Braves +1.5
Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves
Edge
Friendly alt spread at 70.9% implied (target 70%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: ML favorite Atlanta Braves → home spread.
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-spread surface, home-side at friendly rung (ref: a8a607)
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Final · Grading detail
Boston Red Sox1
Atlanta Braves8
Winner: Atlanta Braves · 2026-05-17
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#850
UUIDd7f70111-d537-4c9f-bba5-1c6d92673528
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-05-17 17:06 UTC
Graded2026-05-17 20:49 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:824923:2026-05-17T17:35:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashd2f253189116b2e3a781f3028ba875ee8eb6be45541490677111209415dd54e6
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
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