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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-01🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED b0b57822

Ezequiel Tovar Over 0.5 Hits

Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Angels

-164risk0.11u→win0.07u
LOSS

Stake

0.11u

Odds

-164

Closing

-173

CLV

+2.01%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 78.4% over last 15 games vs 62.1% implied → +16.3pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +16.3pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #1 vs this prop (+37.6% vs league avg over 288 games)
  • Outdoor conditions at Angel Stadium: 10 mph wind blowing OUT (S): ball carries, HR-friendly.

Line movement

-164-173-0.03 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (17)

CLV math

Posted
-164
1.6098
Closing
-173
1.5780
Delta
+2.01%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1088
UUID903d7f5d-50f8-4803-b420-da37dbddc902
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-01 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-06-02 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashb0b57822cfe66a92db6a9703eb2f0f67d7dc0efbbd1146719ffc98f9f0d204c9
Closing line-173 captured 2026-06-02 00:10 UTC
CLV delta+2.01%
Closing hash7dd350fe6323dfb014c2330bb0fc81e39c36ff0a450b78b10ac40dab76cb6e1d

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,125 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public12 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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