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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-20💎Elite◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED d70e0bc4

Shohei Ohtani Over 6.5 Strikeouts

Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres

-145risk0.1u→win0.07u
LOSS

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-145

Closing

-175

CLV

+7.52%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 6 games vs 59.2% implied → +8.3pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 6 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +8.3pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #22 vs this prop (-4.4% vs league avg over 273 games)
  • Outdoor conditions at Petco Park: 10 mph wind blowing OUT (SW): ball carries, HR-friendly.

Line movement

-145-175-0.12 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-145
1.6897
Closing
-175
1.5714
Delta
+7.52%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#999
UUIDa06f36a8-402a-4e5a-b725-e6c7f95ade54
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-20 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-05-21 06:45 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashd70e0bc41c284f1171a521187cd06b9459e16a0456e04f33f4c437c7a7bbd2da
Closing line-175 captured 2026-05-20 23:12 UTC
CLV delta+7.52%
Closing hash1498c3bd581874bc879a979ec35877a6bad5eb06c390bef00c6760eeaa5e9552

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public11 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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