Under 9
Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins
Edge
Friendly alt under at 63.6% implied (target 70%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: neutral vegas band, under rung lower-juice (63.6% vs 66.1%).
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-total surface, under-side at friendly rung
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Final · Grading detail
Houston Astros1
Minnesota Twins4
Winner: Minnesota Twins · 2026-05-20
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-105
1.9524
Delta
-19.51%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#985
UUID0564cdfd-a799-465e-9d45-240deea19fef
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-05-20 17:11 UTC
Graded2026-05-20 20:05 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:823703:2026-05-20T17:40:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash2f01476d76b73594c57aca760df33a611fffdb47eeea911feda7a09db6c0e521
Closing line-105 captured 2026-05-20 17:42 UTC
CLV delta-19.51%
Closing hash3057a2e101ef75b7ac3f2d28cfd2732273af7f56a35be78c99d9ec175f9a1dee
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger87.4% hashed1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close62.0% closed1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public11 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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