Minnesota Twins +1
Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins
Edge
Friendly alt spread at 66.4% implied (target 70%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: ML favorite Minnesota Twins → home spread.
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-spread surface, home-side at friendly rung
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Final · Grading detail
Houston Astros1
Minnesota Twins4
Winner: Minnesota Twins · 2026-05-20
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-198
1.5051
Closing
+148
2.4800
Delta
-39.31%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#984
UUIDc48c1b12-d3cc-4a28-892e-fd36fe714624
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-05-20 17:11 UTC
Graded2026-05-20 20:00 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:823703:2026-05-20T17:40:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashf433e30ceef82c4729122332f7116a45545a10f0bdc5b6ebcd70e4fcecce26cb
Closing line+148 captured 2026-05-20 17:42 UTC
CLV delta-39.31%
Closing hash3c312292da384a3f09133af7412d9102bb3702d5fa39d472eb0c3cc990b92cfc
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger87.4% hashed1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close62.0% closed1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public11 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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