Over 8.5
Texas Rangers @ Colorado Rockies
Edge
Friendly alt over at 65.5% implied (target 70%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: vegas total 10 ≥ 10 (high-scoring band) → over.
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-total surface, over-side at friendly rung
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Final · Grading detail
Texas Rangers5
Colorado Rockies4
Winner: Texas Rangers · 2026-05-20
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-190
1.5263
Closing
-107
1.9346
Delta
-21.10%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#987
UUIDd6fa82d3-28fd-4108-8089-b88c274288ce
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-05-20 17:55 UTC
Graded2026-05-20 22:12 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:824355:2026-05-20T19:10:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash292e4d6a1678452728b40a63c141c9b2b930bab7dca4cb5d7f8a80697ad4de37
Closing line-107 captured 2026-05-20 19:11 UTC
CLV delta-21.10%
Closing hash92e3c84d7043aa60343b3e857517874f3e89d937a3056cca0e9911f944fb05e6
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger87.4% hashed1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close62.0% closed1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public11 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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