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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-22🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 7478ad2d

Jake Bauers Over 0.5 Hits

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers

-168risk0.16u→win0.1u
WIN

Stake

0.16u

Odds

-168

Closing

-161

CLV

-1.60%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.2% over last 15 games vs 62.7% implied → +23.5pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +23.5pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #28 vs this prop (-13.8% vs league avg over 278 games)
  • 86.2% over last 15 games

Line movement

-168-161+0.03 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-168
1.5952
Closing
-161
1.6211
Delta
-1.60%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1013
UUIDa348c239-2304-4f07-883d-68b62badba4d
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-22 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-05-23 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash7478ad2dc5f913a7c014e2d1d6b0eaf2b837579e27ba98b596307159fe1363b2
Closing line-161 captured 2026-05-22 22:12 UTC
CLV delta-1.60%
Closing hashb8766a00d1783a1b8c0757f65a0f22274ea4e55efde1947b3392ed21802c7c2f

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public11 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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