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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-08-08🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED e2a9d85a

Gunnar Henderson Under 1.5 Total Bases

Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers

-180risk0.11u→win0.06u
WIN

Stake

0.11u

Odds

-180

Closing

-170

CLV

-2.06%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 94.7% over last 15 games vs 64.3% implied → +20.1pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Game context

Context signals

  • +20.1pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #4 vs this prop (+15.2% vs league avg over 225 games)
  • 94.7% over last 15 games

Line movement

-180-170+0.03 dec
Model Record (30d)
Picks
15
Settled
13
Hit rate
66.7%
8-4
ROI
-1.07%
-0.02u
CLV avg
+0.35%
n=11
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (13 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (16)

CLV math

Posted
-180
1.5556
Closing
-170
1.5882
Delta
-2.06%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1749
UUIDc28bf28a-301c-4f5c-84df-68092a9cbbf3
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-08-08 15:02 UTC
Graded2026-08-09 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashe2a9d85ab01ed6312bb5a5cb485b194bb99d3b05e03d9c0bfe808d8d8e66a79e
Closing line-170 captured 2026-08-08 21:49 UTC
CLV delta-2.06%
Closing hash50fe9a3ca8e2a0ddde799f6e1cd585d8c2d352d5c58837365a5e35b77bae6b5f

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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