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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-30🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 2df7ef58

Blaze Jordan Under 0.5 batter_runs_scored

Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals

-235risk0.1u→win0.04u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-235

Closing

-250

CLV

+1.82%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 93.3% over last 15 games vs 70.1% implied → +15.1pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Chicago Cubs4
St. Louis Cardinals2
Winner: Chicago Cubs · 2026-07-30
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-devig-mktTrailing 30-day window
Picks
4
Settled
4
Hit rate
75.0%
3-1
ROI
+17.93%
+0.16u
CLV avg
-0.82%
n=4
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (4 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-235
1.4255
Closing
-250
1.4000
Delta
+1.82%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1670
UUIDc7489af1-f805-4d6c-9462-c283147a7653
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-30 14:15 UTC
Graded2026-07-31 00:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash2df7ef5857372f586de038e62c63b6b21ff5ca02fa1b4e3689f65dd8e1b098d9
Closing line-250 captured 2026-07-30 16:54 UTC
CLV delta+1.82%
Closing hash831799db835c8a0a62c787d58fc001c7a3db413a988eaa71bba38e749ff168c7

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.4% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public12 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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