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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-23🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 89608ae0

Zack Gelof Over 0.5 Hits

Athletics @ San Francisco Giants

-175risk0.22u→win0.13u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.22u

Odds

-175

Closing

-185

CLV

+2.01%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 95.5% over last 15 games vs 63.6% implied → +31.9pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanduel)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Final · Grading detail
Athletics1
San Francisco Giants3
Winner: San Francisco Giants · 2026-06-23
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-185
1.5405
Delta
+2.01%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1310
UUIDef33ef60-d908-4599-b01c-cc76fd1ebd68
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-23 20:33 UTC
Graded2026-06-24 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash89608ae0d9dac062554543b3d733afcbce65029fc527d7b96d8ade89e8292a61
Closing line-185 captured 2026-06-24 00:16 UTC
CLV delta+2.01%
Closing hasha9918ac8a515660fbc963aac3388f69b7d9ea5a35a83f01b6454e41957b49e76

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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