Zack Gelof Over 0.5 Total Bases
Los Angeles Angels @ Athletics
Edge
Empirical 97.5% over last 15 games vs 63.6% implied → +33.9pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%
Final · Grading detail
Los Angeles Angels7
Athletics0
Winner: Los Angeles Angels · 2026-06-20
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#1254
UUIDf6fc9224-395a-4fc6-8b31-a96224026563
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-20 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-06-22 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash717fce5c4361aaa1f4f7cc150297f7700534997db3725329fc7016a6d6e25660
Share this receipt
Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger87.4% hashed1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close62.0% closed1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public14 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. NJ/PA: 1-800-GAMBLER · MI: 1-800-270-7117 · VA: 1-888-532-3500 · CO: 1-800-522-4700 · NY: 877-846-7369 (HOPENY).
NuroPicks LLC · 30 N Gould St Ste R, Sheridan, WY 82801