Jacob Wilson Over 0.5 Hits
Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies
-268risk0.21u→win0.08u
WIN
Edge
Empirical 95.7% over last 15 games vs 72.8% implied → +22.8pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.
Game context
Context signals
- +22.8pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #11 vs this prop (+1.9% vs league avg over 288 games)
- 95.7% over last 15 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#511
UUIDf9d54268-c97a-4f47-9534-f0ab305df560
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-07 20:30 UTC
Graded2026-05-08 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash2bc70e4e0853cc97036dfc2d8b712267295845031f6b01cc4718d80f957fddfd
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Why this receipt is trustable
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- Graded against close62.0% closed1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
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