Rui Hachimura Over 9.5 Points
Los Angeles Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
-265risk0.25u→win0.09u
WIN
Edge
Empirical 100.0% over last 15 games vs 72.6% implied → +27.4pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
NBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanduel)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.
Game context
Context signals
- +27.4pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #18 vs this prop (-3.8% vs league avg over 180 games)
- 100.0% over last 15 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#516
UUID0946811b-15c3-4a3a-894b-734abe565064
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-07 21:12 UTC
Graded2026-05-08 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashbd26c7ae5189eccb5485d48aefa833bad77991f7f529605d4c42c5287f9d099f
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Why this receipt is trustable
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