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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-02🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 6117b441

Troy Johnston Over 0.5 Hits

Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Angels

-165risk0.11u→win0.07u
WIN

Stake

0.11u

Odds

-165

Closing

-196

CLV

+6.35%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 78.4% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +16.1pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +16.1pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #1 vs this prop (+37.1% vs league avg over 288 games)
  • Outdoor conditions at Angel Stadium: 10 mph wind blowing OUT (SW): ball carries, HR-friendly.

Line movement

-165-196-0.10 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-196
1.5102
Delta
+6.35%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1104
UUIDe8e6ed55-ea5a-487a-9306-2a528a5aaebb
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-02 20:33 UTC
Graded2026-06-03 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash6117b44143226733e88d3a2ddf855390f43d6890a1795ca34f056fa709490148
Closing line-196 captured 2026-06-03 00:08 UTC
CLV delta+6.35%
Closing hash1d25b4648c97cbf4d2d00cd545530055d4ebd65b023b91afdbc3f20a32dae4a3

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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