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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-10🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 09fbb694

T.J. Rumfield Over 0.5 Hits

Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants

-168risk0.13u→win0.08u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.13u

Odds

-168

Closing

-166

CLV

-0.45%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 82.8% over last 15 games vs 62.7% implied → +20.1pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=9 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Colorado Rockies4
San Francisco Giants3
Winner: Colorado Rockies · 2026-07-10
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-168
1.5952
Closing
-166
1.6024
Delta
-0.45%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1344
UUID6b148ddb-f7b9-432a-ada2-e754eef79ee8
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-10 20:31 UTC
Graded2026-07-11 05:35 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash09fbb6948e7fe9e590b82f8d96a15b648d029176f6081ab14981d6a8750da24a
Closing line-166 captured 2026-07-11 00:57 UTC
CLV delta-0.45%
Closing hasha24ee8dbf88aae2e156b53ba1ec674ab453fba61c6137571eff9e29970da664d

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.5% hashed
    1,136 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close61.9% closed
    1,119 settled picks · 61.9% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public17 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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