Seattle Mariners +1.5
San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners
Edge
Friendly alt spread at 73.2% implied (target 70%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: ML favorite Seattle Mariners → home spread.
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-spread surface, home-side at friendly rung
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Final · Grading detail
San Diego Padres8
Seattle Mariners3
Winner: San Diego Padres · 2026-05-17
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#886
UUIDd314d9b3-8c59-4fa3-981c-147f0b106fb5
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-05-17 22:06 UTC
Graded2026-05-18 02:24 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:823138:2026-05-17T23:20:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash34f61e40eac11e3f23823f1e3af6347e221ab7435a986dbb1ec6d5539324c9b3
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