Under 9.5
San Diego Padres @ Seattle Mariners
Edge
Friendly alt under at 71.0% implied (target 70%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: vegas total 7.5 ≤ 7.5 (low-scoring band) → under.
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-total surface, under-side at friendly rung (ref: ea3db0)
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Final · Grading detail
San Diego Padres8
Seattle Mariners3
Winner: San Diego Padres · 2026-05-17
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#887
UUIDed9c0c94-5204-4424-99a5-dd4e0504a794
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-05-17 22:06 UTC
Graded2026-05-18 02:29 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:823138:2026-05-17T23:20:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashe20d4d4bb2b9c3bf77e532bebd7e79d62f28a1c9bdc459b29ed45aee04d07990
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