Over 7.5
San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Edge
Friendly alt over at 60.8% implied (target 70%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: neutral vegas band, over rung lower-juice (60.8% vs 66.1%).
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-total surface, over-side at friendly rung
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Final · Grading detail
San Francisco Giants3
Arizona Diamondbacks6
Winner: Arizona Diamondbacks · 2026-05-20
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-155
1.6452
Closing
-112
1.8929
Delta
-13.09%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#991
UUIDb07a4c6d-e8bf-4cd1-acc0-94ff9cfab2a4
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-05-20 19:11 UTC
Graded2026-05-20 22:12 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:825084:2026-05-20T19:40:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashc645250c9e3fa94cc56a2aa59e46af96a6714f879282487a2a73fce856dc26ae
Closing line-112 captured 2026-05-20 19:42 UTC
CLV delta-13.09%
Closing hashef9fdc8da8a2c142cdd67cceea2795bc964e65659da200bdba9ad13ff441bc94
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger87.4% hashed1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close62.0% closed1,127 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public10 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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