Seattle Mariners -1
Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners
Edge
Friendly alt spread at 49.5% implied (target 70%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: ML favorite Seattle Mariners → home spread.
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-spread surface, home-side at friendly rung (ref: db6b97)
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Final · Grading detail
Chicago White Sox4
Seattle Mariners5
Winner: Seattle Mariners · 2026-05-20
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
+102
2.0200
Closing
+150
2.5000
Delta
-19.20%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#992
UUIDd960b664-89e8-41c0-b35f-8471c2ffc2bd
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-05-20 19:41 UTC
Graded2026-05-20 22:57 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:823134:2026-05-20T20:10:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashcbc00c29ca5472e5b169ba9c1e696ef4370944411a7853a5c9c52355408cf03d
Closing line+150 captured 2026-05-20 20:12 UTC
CLV delta-19.20%
Closing hash9f22bf946b0997efe0d8db478a55cb6fec5e727db898c0b90644059ecd7d484c
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public12 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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