Under 8.5
Chicago White Sox @ Seattle Mariners
Edge
Friendly alt under at 63.0% implied (target 70%), trades payout for hit rate. Side rationale: vegas total 7.5 ≤ 7.5 (low-scoring band) → under.
Signal
Same lineup gate as ML
Context
MLB alt-total surface, under-side at friendly rung
Risk
Alt-line heuristic. No model fair-line; we're buying probability, not edge. Track CLV vs. mainline closing.
Final · Grading detail
Chicago White Sox4
Seattle Mariners5
Winner: Seattle Mariners · 2026-05-20
Related Picks (20)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
CLV math
Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-121
1.8264
Delta
-13.04%
posted/closing - 1
Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.
Audit trail
Pick ID#993
UUIDcf8e083c-9e9c-44cb-9300-0671438d5bce
Surfacesharp:MLB
Posted2026-05-20 19:41 UTC
Graded2026-05-20 23:02 UTC
Lineup confirmmlb:823134:2026-05-20T20:10:00Z
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash7e8dcb85d2d941ebb1b5665e008a3906f637b7423441b38b4af2ae858e4df983
Closing line-121 captured 2026-05-20 20:12 UTC
CLV delta-13.04%
Closing hash7adca4ce107d9c25a31b0686c30e9a372ac47696edc56160cdfc0ddc04b55ebe
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger82.7% hashed1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close63.4% closed1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
- Every pick public12 pendingWins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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