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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-20💎Elite◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 61c77429

Yohendrick Pinango Over 0.5 Total Bases

Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees

-145risk0.1u→win0.07u
LOSS

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-145

Closing

-167

CLV

+5.68%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 85.0% over last 6 games vs 59.2% implied → +10.3pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics) (ref: 36e27b)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 6 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +10.3pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #28 vs this prop (-14.2% vs league avg over 286 games)
  • Outdoor conditions at Yankee Stadium: 12 mph wind blowing IN (N): ball suppressed, fade HR overs; precip risk: showers and thunderstorms.

Line movement

-145-167-0.09 dec
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-145
1.6897
Closing
-167
1.5988
Delta
+5.68%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#998
UUID442d6942-a18d-45de-b366-f02ecd5aafac
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-20 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-05-21 05:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash61c7742965a30ed1db4767bca578d987d788cd56043662d295c5107d9e68fcdd
Closing line-167 captured 2026-05-20 21:36 UTC
CLV delta+5.68%
Closing hash72cdae9acb90a531dfad08c1133957c38dd3d0e33859ed8831122e0ade25bcf9

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.4% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public12 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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