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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-22🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 6a0f25ca

Bryson Stott Over 0.5 Total Bases

Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals

-180risk0.1u→win0.06u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-180

Closing

-150

CLV

-6.67%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 72.6% over last 15 games vs 64.3% implied → +8.3pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Final · Grading detail
Philadelphia Phillies1
Washington Nationals4
Winner: Washington Nationals · 2026-06-22
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-180
1.5556
Closing
-150
1.6667
Delta
-6.67%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1289
UUIDb2640346-f657-462d-8ab3-d4c857f2b5bc
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-22 20:33 UTC
Graded2026-06-23 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash6a0f25cafcbfe83f916594ecaeca6d54c0f934d54cce91571801936d5a085968
Closing line-150 captured 2026-06-22 21:16 UTC
CLV delta-6.67%
Closing hash74c9bf7af811dab8ccc0b04a3e5a1dbdd965c99cad084c5b2e9f143830f9edf2

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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