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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-07-30🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 1e8612d5

Mookie Betts Under 1.5 Total Bases

Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Dodgers

-190risk0.22u→win0.12u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.22u

Odds

-190

Closing

-175

CLV

-2.87%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 99.9% over last 15 games vs 65.5% implied → +34.4pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm) (ref: 714825)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: n=0 < min 30

Final · Grading detail
Seattle Mariners2
Los Angeles Dodgers6
Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers · 2026-07-30
Model Record (30d)
Picks
15
Settled
13
Hit rate
66.7%
8-4
ROI
-1.07%
-0.02u
CLV avg
+0.35%
n=11
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (13 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-190
1.5263
Closing
-175
1.5714
Delta
-2.87%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1676
UUIDbea6b6de-4071-4bab-8c81-1859f5ec345a
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-07-30 21:15 UTC
Graded2026-07-31 05:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash1e8612d57775c41356bec452f0b70ec4b5e2517e69559b27cfa5324572ce7b7b
Closing line-175 captured 2026-07-31 00:54 UTC
CLV delta-2.87%
Closing hash54f4fa28befd42dbf898c16a56989c3004a3892609b00ed339443443e27054dd

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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