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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-23🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 49ae72d9

Lane Thomas Over 0.5 Total Bases

Kansas City Royals @ Tampa Bay Rays

-170risk0.1u→win0.06u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-170

Closing

-173

CLV

+0.65%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 71.5% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +8.5pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Final · Grading detail
Kansas City Royals12
Tampa Bay Rays5
Winner: Kansas City Royals · 2026-06-23
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-173
1.5780
Delta
+0.65%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1307
UUIDf2143ead-90dd-45bd-b4f8-23c35ad4d986
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-23 20:33 UTC
Graded2026-06-24 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash49ae72d9177aab2922310658a428c2a36bc602780048fb2f05043522933acdec
Closing line-173 captured 2026-06-23 21:12 UTC
CLV delta+0.65%
Closing hash35d026c357aacff582b4be660d460d16ab72aa5a132e79920856f9b3cd8f396b

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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