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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-23🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED d31ea82d

Jorge Soler Over 0.5 Hits

Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels

-164risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-164

Closing

-170

CLV

+1.36%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 81.7% over last 6 games vs 62.1% implied → +7.8pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 6 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.

Game context

Context signals

  • +7.8pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #4 vs this prop (+7.9% vs league avg over 284 games)
  • 81.7% over last 6 games

Line movement

-164-170-0.02 dec
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-164
1.6098
Closing
-170
1.5882
Delta
+1.36%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1027
UUIDff31c8cb-ae62-4776-9ff1-dadf5ca5bd45
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-23 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-05-24 05:35 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashd31ea82dbb95dd90f4135a5b5306656e7f7d9e60f0a4d8d9a552c2cd68413390
Closing line-170 captured 2026-05-24 00:36 UTC
CLV delta+1.36%
Closing hash943e31b57e3933f6d1623d25b0a9f5c5699d8366997a193bf8e2f90c31b28f28

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.4% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public12 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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