Skip to main content
NuroPicksAlpha
Today···Model 30d···0 LIVE
start
← back to record
mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-20💎Elite◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 6e40053d

Riley Greene Over 0.5 Hits

Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers

-150risk0.16u→win0.11u
WIN

Stake

0.16u

Odds

-150

Closing

-157

CLV

+1.82%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 84.9% over last 15 games vs 60.0% implied → +24.9pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanduel)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +24.9pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #14 vs this prop (+1.3% vs league avg over 287 games)
  • 84.9% over last 15 games

Line movement

-150-157-0.03 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-150
1.6667
Closing
-157
1.6369
Delta
+1.82%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#997
UUID2c1ae0db-0d4a-499b-98f1-c07640ccbd5c
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-20 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-05-21 04:45 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash6e40053d3faa47c8dc51abd4c06f82181616b9c5cad93b2ff339a33a160e66b7
Closing line-157 captured 2026-05-20 21:12 UTC
CLV delta+1.82%
Closing hashea4db6defc6d3ead09ac9250301c5b71a84a2cc5a5483c2dc1a7f30793e7cc6f

Share this receipt

Post to X 

Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public11 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. NJ/PA: 1-800-GAMBLER · MI: 1-800-270-7117 · VA: 1-888-532-3500 · CO: 1-800-522-4700 · NY: 877-846-7369 (HOPENY).

NuroPicks LLC · 30 N Gould St Ste R, Sheridan, WY 82801