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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-20🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 1ba06294

Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 Total Bases

San Diego Padres @ Texas Rangers

-175risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-175

Closing

-160

CLV

-3.30%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 74.4% over last 15 games vs 63.6% implied → +10.8pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Final · Grading detail
San Diego Padres6
Texas Rangers4
Winner: San Diego Padres · 2026-06-20
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-175
1.5714
Closing
-160
1.6250
Delta
-3.30%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1249
UUID5bbea9be-cf1d-4b97-97b4-080ba8d94122
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-20 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-06-21 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash1ba06294c0728808331ecc27eabb82b87a0b253d55904b8a2b600eeb2fb5aa92
Closing line-160 captured 2026-06-20 20:33 UTC
CLV delta-3.30%
Closing hashe8efb3b89ae3dcf9af514008435da52b070ffe7b7b3f7dfb555d72bb39918b28

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
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