Rui Hachimura Over 11.5 Points
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers
-260risk0.25u→win0.1u
WIN
Edge
Empirical 100.0% over last 15 games vs 72.2% implied → +27.8pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
NBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanduel) (ref: 34d8ef)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.
Game context
Context signals
- +27.8pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #19 vs this prop (-0.8% vs league avg over 145 games)
- 100.0% over last 15 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (17)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#676
UUID70e280f2-6f23-4dca-8c4d-cb23ec0775fb
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-11 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-05-12 08:45 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash8be76e9d36737e7b03aec26919854cb9288bd6de34425cce1bc90243fb570ab7
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Why this receipt is trustable
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