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nbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-24🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 8f60ae40

Keldon Johnson Over 0.5 Assists

Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs

-164risk0.12u→win0.07u
LOSS

Stake

0.12u

Odds

-164

Closing

-159

CLV

-1.18%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 80.0% over last 15 games vs 62.1% implied → +17.9pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

NBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +17.9pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #15 vs this prop (-9.2% vs league avg over 178 games)
  • 80.0% over last 15 games

Line movement

-164-159+0.02 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (16)

CLV math

Posted
-164
1.6098
Closing
-159
1.6289
Delta
-1.18%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1029
UUID7cb2d63f-fc2a-4740-827a-714db9c3f0cf
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-24 20:30 UTC
Graded2026-05-25 03:35 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash8f60ae409b3fdd7ca5df2c08b7838fca854396c0f100fc8ec5eb8359bf966ee1
Closing line-159 captured 2026-05-24 22:40 UTC
CLV delta-1.18%
Closing hash848ded7226366d07ae27ffebd0478c3bcdb6672c54fd428f7e14eed298f84b38

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public11 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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