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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-02🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 61c6f164

Coby Mayo Over 0.5 Hits

Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox

-165risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-165

Closing

-139

CLV

-6.59%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 68.3% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +6.1pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (betmgm)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.

Game context

Context signals

  • +6.1pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #7 vs this prop (+6.9% vs league avg over 278 games)
  • 68.3% over last 15 games

Line movement

-165-139+0.11 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-139
1.7194
Delta
-6.59%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1096
UUID87a83403-5c4b-40b3-9ff6-2249f5b86e7f
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-02 20:33 UTC
Graded2026-06-03 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash61c6f164b3bd0b24fd7c39bcff06a2f0039a1bf37178c64c7a85aac827ab795e
Closing line-139 captured 2026-06-02 21:16 UTC
CLV delta-6.59%
Closing hash1faf8bc759bda19b6bafed0c752c10544008283994dbd2cab3562dab130acc82

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,125 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public12 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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