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nbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-23🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 373d2c22

Isaiah Hartenstein Over 6.5 Rebounds

Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs

-165risk0.16u→win0.1u
WIN

Stake

0.16u

Odds

-165

Closing

-170

CLV

+1.12%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 86.7% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +24.4pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

NBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +24.4pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #14 vs this prop (-8.7% vs league avg over 178 games)
  • 86.7% over last 15 games

Line movement

-165-170-0.02 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (16)

CLV math

Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-170
1.5882
Delta
+1.12%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1020
UUID8a29885a-d353-47ce-bd17-793871afc334
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-23 20:30 UTC
Graded2026-05-25 03:35 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash373d2c22ae0513712a8e704faa53615c80d5fca3777f51a4c92f8cbf49f5d892
Closing line-170 captured 2026-05-24 22:40 UTC
CLV delta+1.12%
Closing hash79a693a72c3dc9f599067edf12e6f2b7974df8efefbc86c03e64ccc59818620f

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public11 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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