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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-21🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED f884d8e3

Josh Naylor Over 0.5 Hits

Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners

-165risk0.1u→win0.06u
LOSS
ESPN box score →

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-165

Closing

-110

CLV

-15.87%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 76.8% over last 15 games vs 62.3% implied → +14.5pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics) (ref: fa33fb)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Final · Grading detail
Boston Red Sox1
Seattle Mariners3
Winner: Seattle Mariners · 2026-06-21
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-165
1.6061
Closing
-110
1.9091
Delta
-15.87%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1278
UUIDc3bb23ce-f8fd-4c5b-b528-03b8ca8b5345
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-21 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-06-22 02:15 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashf884d8e308eb5e454adc4d6b7a12a8e9a8cc759e7cd5bcef1e5b23b194dc2377
Closing line-110 captured 2026-06-21 20:33 UTC
CLV delta-15.87%
Closing hash5186e6ee2068d2f87883a0f54e21f22da023c5e2bac750bf743ab103d323ada6

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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