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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-22🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 4ac30339

Luke Keaschall Over 0.5 Hits

Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox

-164risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-164

Closing

-164

CLV

0.00%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 68.3% over last 15 games vs 62.1% implied → +6.2pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.

Game context

Context signals

  • +6.2pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #17 vs this prop (-0.5% vs league avg over 278 games)
  • 68.3% over last 15 games

Line movement

-164-1640.00 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-164
1.6098
Closing
-164
1.6098
Delta
0.00%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1011
UUIDfde52ab4-b81e-44df-a2f9-5514fb140698
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-22 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-05-23 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash4ac30339e7de38e20e3415e97f9b47071532fe97da0a854b28259b902aa142e4
Closing line-164 captured 2026-05-22 21:42 UTC
CLV delta+0.00%
Closing hashde12a37d85ffc03e7a9b26692c4dbf423ab661b59af14fb9c187f1a6f0c3f910

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public11 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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