Skip to main content
NuroPicksAlpha
Today···Model 30d···0 LIVE
start
← back to record
mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-06-03🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 678ba800

Troy Johnston Over 0.5 Total Bases

Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Angels

-170risk0.15u→win0.09u
WIN

Stake

0.15u

Odds

-170

Closing

-193

CLV

+4.62%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 84.9% over last 15 games vs 63.0% implied → +22.0pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanatics) (ref: 85bcc1)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +22.0pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #13 vs this prop (+0.8% vs league avg over 299 games)
  • Outdoor conditions at Angel Stadium: 10 mph wind blowing OUT (S): ball carries, HR-friendly.

Line movement

-170-193-0.07 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2-handed-fallback-parkTrailing 30-day window
Picks
22
Settled
22
Hit rate
60.0%
12-8
ROI
-5.88%
-0.18u
CLV avg
+1.25%
n=19
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (22 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-170
1.5882
Closing
-193
1.5181
Delta
+4.62%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1118
UUID0ace0ffa-e6a4-4d16-8fab-a99fe53c67d2
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-06-03 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-06-04 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash678ba800aed784498567ebd908a28c8bfc59895a315286ced896f8b46c8636a2
Closing line-193 captured 2026-06-04 00:09 UTC
CLV delta+4.62%
Closing hash0a7be60a84fbb03ea7d3ddab7228dd269ad2a26b9b758ac5ad10075631c8719e

Share this receipt

Post to X 

Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,123 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public14 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Must be 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. NJ/PA: 1-800-GAMBLER · MI: 1-800-270-7117 · VA: 1-888-532-3500 · CO: 1-800-522-4700 · NY: 877-846-7369 (HOPENY).

NuroPicks LLC · 30 N Gould St Ste R, Sheridan, WY 82801