Josh Hart Over 3.5 Assists
New York Knicks @ Oklahoma City Thunder
-172risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN
Edge
Empirical 73.3% over last 15 games vs 63.2% implied → +10.1pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
NBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanduel)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%
Game context
Context signals
- +10.1pt EV vs implied
- 73.3% over last 15 games
- Bayesian-shrunk to 73.3%
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#1055
UUID5b0c59e0-b724-41d2-8775-2b5c0d50ff79
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-27 20:30 UTC
Graded2026-06-04 06:45 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash7336ddc636b8def46bae384f94d944414b868273031f40829274669f50a1f92d
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Why this receipt is trustable
- Append-only ledger87.4% hashed1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
- Graded against close62.0% closed1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
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