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nbaAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-29🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED d6941e15

OG Anunoby Over 14.5 Points

New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs

-180risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-180

Closing

-165

CLV

-3.14%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 73.3% over last 15 games vs 64.3% implied → +9.0pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

NBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (fanduel)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25. · elite-gate: roi=-7.5% < min 0%

Game context

Context signals

  • +9.0pt EV vs implied
  • 73.3% over last 15 games
  • Bayesian-shrunk to 73.3%

Line movement

-180-165+0.05 dec
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (19)

CLV math

Posted
-180
1.5556
Closing
-165
1.6061
Delta
-3.14%
posted/closing - 1

Market closed tighter than where we shipped. One pick is noise; the trend at /record tells the story.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1069
UUIDce45025c-a381-4304-a64b-9583293446b7
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-29 20:30 UTC
Graded2026-06-04 04:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hashd6941e150a3eb9df7f4f52b68471c2155c3f9d6ecff084d9b34f671cf8d8d647
Closing line-165 captured 2026-06-03 23:11 UTC
CLV delta-3.14%
Closing hash25251a94aaee2ab8203d1bf44505ff82814d37db15c50f2be61a86f9770b50f9

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger87.4% hashed
    1,137 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close62.0% closed
    1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public11 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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