Devin Vassell Over 9.5 Points
San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves
-237risk0.25u→win0.11u
WIN
Edge
Empirical 100.0% over last 15 games vs 70.3% implied → +29.7pt EV.
Signal
Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)
Context
NBA player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (draftkings)
Risk
Empirical-only model on last 15 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.
Game context
Context signals
- +29.7pt EV vs implied
- Opp ranks #11 vs this prop (+10.2% vs league avg over 184 games)
- 100.0% over last 15 games
Model Record (30d)
prop-edge-v2Trailing 30-day window
Picks
23
Settled
23
Hit rate
60.9%
14-9
ROI
-4.96%
-0.17u
CLV avg
+0.96%
n=23
Last 20 settled · cumulative units
ProvisionalProvisional sample (23 settled). Below the 500-pick verification gate — treat ROI as directional, not proof of edge.
Related Picks (18)
Same slate
Same team (7d)
Same model
Audit trail
Pick ID#629
UUIDd7652aa1-7e54-4efd-a0d0-a6f06765ba3a
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-09 22:46 UTC
Graded2026-05-11 03:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash566ec08c3e279583bb78ecd2e2b3c9d6e7d7de1781b9cede03f62a311039eae5
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Why this receipt is trustable
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- Graded against close62.0% closed1,126 settled picks · 62.0% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
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