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mlbAlt PlayerProp.2026-05-22🔒Pro◆◆◆◆◇Nuro Edge 8.0LOCKED 272c376b

Mike Trout Over 0.5 Hits

Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels

-164risk0.1u→win0.06u
WIN

Stake

0.1u

Odds

-164

Closing

-195

CLV

+6.41%

Source

AI

Why this pick4 factors · locked at post time
Edge

Empirical 81.7% over last 6 games vs 62.1% implied → +7.8pt EV.

Signal

Lineup gate cleared (or watchdog T-30 fallback)

Context

MLB player-prop alt surface, over-side EV-gated (bovada)

Risk

Empirical-only model on last 6 games; opp + park adjustments not modeled. CLV-tracked. Kelly-sized at 0.25.

Game context

Context signals

  • +7.8pt EV vs implied
  • Opp ranks #7 vs this prop (+7.2% vs league avg over 285 games)
  • Outdoor conditions at Angel Stadium: 10 mph wind blowing OUT (SW): ball carries, HR-friendly.

Line movement

-164-195-0.10 dec
Related Picks (20)

CLV math

Posted
-164
1.6098
Closing
-195
1.5128
Delta
+6.41%
posted/closing - 1

Positive CLV means we beat the closing number. Leading indicator the model and timing edge are real.

Audit trail

Pick ID#1014
UUID6ba1963e-155e-471c-ade0-11fce344e6bd
Surfaceprop-slate-daily
Posted2026-05-22 20:32 UTC
Graded2026-05-23 05:05 UTC
ImmutableLocked at post time by picks_immutable_guard trigger
Opening hash272c376b0448d73c183cb91ced6e3ebfa2190d28a2a7ba56d23d5475a4da8b32
Closing line-195 captured 2026-05-23 00:09 UTC
CLV delta+6.41%
Closing hashf368dfa0891da0ecc487141bcdcd415639c93fe3386b971658babfc276006933

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Why this receipt is trustable

  • Append-only ledger82.7% hashed
    1,255 picks locked at post-time via a Postgres trigger. Nothing edits, nothing disappears.
  • Graded against close63.4% closed
    1,243 settled picks · 63.4% carry the closing-line hash. CLV is published, not estimated.
  • Every pick public12 pending
    Wins, losses, voids, and disputes — all carry the same /record/[id] receipt.
Entertainment, not financial advice. 21+ only. Past performance does not predict future results. If sports betting stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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